The Keys to Drafting Rookies

Since the draft concluded a distant two days ago, it’s clearly time for a fantasy football post. In case you didn’t already know, Stan and I are the best fantasy football players in the world. Last year between us, we combined to make the playoffs in 6 of 6 leagues, we won two elite blogger leagues (Brahsome and Empty the Bench), and between us have a three year run going in our high stakes money league. I’m sure you really care, but we really like bragging.

Anyway, since the draft is fresh on everyone’s mind, today we’d like to share our philosophies on drafting rookies. The art of picking a rookie who can pay his fantasy rent all season is right on par with finding a fat crack-addicted hooker who can pay her rent all season: tricky. So here’s a few of our tips when you’re thinking about rolling the dice on a rookie.

Wait longer than you think you should

This is rule #1 and is of pinnacle importance. Rookies almost always go too early, because quite simply they are fun and exciting. Everybody wants to be the guy who snags the hidden gem, because fantasy football is all about making people think you know your shit. Still, even the safest bets should probably go two rounds later than their average draft position, because of this phenomenon.

Think about your rookies in the context of the other players on the board

This is an extension of the above point, but it merits its own heading. Rookie drafters almost always go into the draft knowing they want to pick certain rookie sleepers – often with a predetermined round. Thus, fantasy owners jump on them in the third or fourth round. For example, how many people drafted Calvin Johnson in the third or fourth last year while guys like Boldin, Houshmanzadeh, and Burress were still on the board? Keep your rookies in the back of your mind, but don’t sacrifice taking a better player just to ensure you get your little project draftee.

Wait to see if they are expected to start

Know the depth chart going in to the season. If your rookie prospect is not starting or at least splitting time as of your draft day; don’t bother. There is no room on a fantasy roster for a player who isn’t getting snaps. They will be available on the waiver wire if they ever do start playing.

Beware of your own homerism

Believe me, there’s a part of me saying Hart is going to be an impact player in Indy with Keith getting arrested and Addai being injury prone or thinking that Mannigham has better separation than anyone on the deep ball, so he’ll be a big play guy in New York. Likewise, Stan is saying that Devin Thomas is the next in the long, long line of great Spartan receivers. Still, take Mannigham for example. Who really knows what the giants will do at receiver? Toomer never seems to age, Burress is a bonafide star, and now Tyree is a big name. Furthermore, isn’t Sinorice Moss supposed to be doing something by now? Anyway, the point is that just because you are intimately familiar with a certain players abilities, it doesn’t mean they will get a shot to use them in their rookie season. If they do, just pick them up off waivers, because nobody else in your league even gives a shit about them.

If you're going to gamble on the "big dog," make sure you are intimately familiar with the handcuff scenario

Stan and I are at complete odds on the “handcuff” theory. I hate it, but he is a big believer. Nevertheless, in the instance of a rookie running back, it is very important to know the situation and often times carry both guys on the roster. See examples Reggie Bush/Deuce '06 and AP/Chester Taylor 07. This season, if you plan to take McFadden, be damn sure you know exactly where they stand with Justin Fargas and Lamont Jordan (and Michael Bush?). Presumably, McFadden should beat them both out, but Fargas always sneaks his way into that lineup to make an impact and after his heroics at the end of last season, anything is possible. On the other hand, if your handcuff is not a guy that will get drafted by anybody else (Ryan Grant last season), just be nimble and ready to pull the trigger if your horse goes down. You don’t need to carry extra safety guys if you are on the ball and you’re prepared to make moves in the event of an injury.

Set diminished goals for rookie WRs

Aside from select instances like Randy Moss and/or Anquan Boldin (to an extent), very seldom do rookie WR's have a huge impact. If they do, it's probably going to be a fluke like Marques Colston. An inconsistent wide receiver is a worthless wide receiver. Trust us, you are better off starting the season with Bernard Berrian or Roddy White than Limas Sweed, DeSean Stevenson, or Early Doucet. Again, just be quick on your toes and grab the breakout guys off waivers if and when they begin to emerge (i.e., Dwayne Bowe).

Look for the back-up/split RB that happens to be in the perfect situation and could very well star down the stretch for a real NFL contender

The real value in rookie picks comes from injuries to the starters. Look at Joe Addai for Indy in 2006 or Laurence Maroney for the Patriots in 2006. These guys wouldn’t have much of an impact if the starter is healthy, but if the main starter gets hurt or plays poorly, there is some real potential. This year’s ideal candidates look like Felix Jones in Dallas and Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh.

Don't fall in love the rookie TE who has a breakout game here or there

See Greg Olsen '07. Just because a rookie tight end shows a flash in the pan game, it doesn’t mean they are going to get a lot of looks. Rookie tight ends tend to have a hard time working their way past the old stalwart tight ends on the depth chart. When they do, it tends to take a while before they get a lot of balls thrown their way. Matt Speath is another good example here. Spaeth caught TD passes in both week 1 and 2 last year, but only caught a mere two more passes in the entire remainder of the season.

Avoid rookie QB's like the plague

There really is no point. The serviceable guys who fall down in the draft like Favre (used to), Hasselbeck, and basically anybody who is black (sorry, but it's true) are better bets for a backup than any rookie. At least you can get someone you know is going to start and fill in when your main QB has a bye or gets injured. The list here is endless but count on either having a non-starter for most of the season (i.e., Brady Quinn, Phillip Rivers, and JaMarcus Russell) or a real piece of shit with a QB rating in the 40s or 50s (i.e., Alex Smith or David Carr). Even Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions in his rookie season.